Democrats take both houses of the US Congress

Voters in the United States went to the polls on Tuesday 3 November, and by Wednesday 4 November the Democratic Party had taken control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans, PBS's live page reports (PBS, live page); AP's report gives the Senate, with the House then too early to call (PBS, carrying AP). The United States has 340.0 million people (World Bank, 2024). The story was carried by twenty newsrooms in our sources, based in six regions.

The count, still in progress. Seat totals differ by outlet and by the hour; all are counts in progress. Middle East Eye says Democrats had 220 House seats by early Wednesday, having gained 25, and had picked up "at least seven" Senate seats for a 53-seat majority (Middle East Eye). Euronews' live page gives the same 220 House seats "at the time of writing" and 53 Democratic senators (Euronews, live page). The Guardian's live page, in a summary timed at 3am ET on Wednesday, gives 54 Senate seats and 225 House seats, and its closing summary 228 House seats (The Guardian, live page). The same agency report, as The Hindu and Dawn carry it, puts the Senate gain at six seats, enough for the networks to project a takeover; Republicans had held a 53-47 majority (The Hindu; Dawn). The New York Times' live page says Republicans lost Senate seats in seven states, according to the AP, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled as of Wednesday evening; Mississippi's counties have until 13 November to submit certified results (The New York Times, live page). WOWT notes that Nebraska's totals are unofficial until the state certifies them (WOWT).

Firsts the sources name. In Michigan, the AP declared Abdul El-Sayed the winner at 2:27am EST on Wednesday; PBS says he will be the country's first Muslim senator (PBS). Trump had labelled him a terrorist during the campaign, Reuters reports as the Straits Times carries it (Straits Times, carrying Reuters). In Texas, James Talarico became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat there since 1988, and Gina Hinojosa the state's first Latina governor and the first Democrat in that office since 1990, the Guardian's live page says (The Guardian, live page). Adam Hamilton became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932 (The Hindu); David Crowley became Wisconsin's first Black governor (The Guardian, live page); and in Maine, Troy Jackson defeated Susan Collins, ending her nearly 30-year tenure in Congress, by the AP's race call as NPR reports it (NPR).

What Trump and Vance said. Trump told the New York Times he was "absolutely willing to accept those results" (Euronews, live page), and minutes later posted a picture of a red cap reading "VETO", according to the same agency report as The Hindu and Dawn carry it (The Hindu; Dawn). On the Iran war, he told Fox News "I think a part of it was Iran", adding that people understood the importance of what he had done there, as AFP and Reuters report it via the Straits Times (Straits Times, carrying AFP and Reuters); Middle East Eye quotes him telling the Wall Street Journal "Iran was a piece of it" (Middle East Eye). Vice-President JD Vance blamed the rout on Trump's decision to start a war with Iran, the New York Times reports; "Everyone knows why we lost", he said on social media (The New York Times, live page). Trump called that assessment "largely true" and said he would "have to do it again" (The New York Times, live page).

Why it matters beyond this week. The same agency report, as The Hindu and Dawn carry it, says the result lets Democrats block Trump's legislation, investigate his administration and use the Senate to thwart judicial and senior appointments (Dawn; The Hindu); Trump has promised to use his veto against their agenda, AP reports (PBS, carrying AP). The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027 (Middle East Eye). Beyond the United States, SCMP's summary of its own coverage says Beijing vowed to keep working towards a "constructive relationship of strategic stability" (SCMP).

Garment workers in Bangladesh protested over the minimum wage all week, and on Wednesday 4 November the country's newly formed wage board agreed at its first meeting to bring in a revised pay structure from December (The Hindu; Human Rights Watch), with first salaries in January, Babul Akhter (spelt Akter in that report), the workers' representative on the board, said (The Hindu). The board did not discuss how large the rise would be and will meet again to settle it, he said (The Hindu). Workers want the monthly minimum raised to 30,000 taka from 12,500 taka, saying the cost of food, housing and transport has eroded what they earn (The Hindu); that is $242 in The Hindu's conversion, and $245 in Dawn's (The Hindu; Dawn). Bangladesh has 173.6 million people (World Bank, 2024).

Before the window. The protests began on Saturday 31 October (Dawn; Al Jazeera), and the government formed the six-member board on Sunday 1 November (The Hindu; Human Rights Watch). Al Jazeera reported about 500 factories temporarily closed since the protests began (Al Jazeera).

Monday 2 November. The Hindu reported that factories had reopened after Sunday's closures (The Hindu), while Al Jazeera reported a heavy police presence in Mirpur and reports of protests for a third day in Savar, Ashulia and Gazipur (Al Jazeera). Counts of closures differ. The manufacturers' association, BGMEA, said demonstrations had disrupted 529 factories and affected nearly 1 million workers (The Hindu); industry representatives said on Monday that workers from at least 670 factories had walked out (The Hindu); BGMEA gave 670 of around 4,000 registered factories (The Hindu); Dawn and Daily Maverick, which carry the same report, say nearly 700 shut on Monday (Dawn; Daily Maverick).

Tuesday 3 November. The protests reached their fourth day by the count of The Hindu, Dawn and Daily Maverick (The Hindu; Dawn; Daily Maverick); The Hindu's Wednesday report calls the next day the fifth (The Hindu). In Ashulia, police answered bricks and stones from protesters with tear gas and sound grenades, the local police superintendent, Mohammad Mominul Islam Bhuiyan, said (Dawn). Injury figures differ: police spokesperson Kamarum Munira said 58 officers had been injured since the protests began, and workers said scores of protesters had been hurt (The Hindu); Dawn and Daily Maverick say dozens were injured on Tuesday (Dawn; Daily Maverick). The Dhaka Metropolitan Police said they had arrested 33 people linked to the now-banned Awami League over their alleged involvement in the unrest in the previous 24 hours (The Hindu); Human Rights Watch gives the same figure and says police have filed cases under the Anti-Terrorism Act against thousands of unnamed people (Human Rights Watch). The home minister, Salahuddin Ahmed, has claimed, The Hindu reported on Tuesday, without providing evidence, that supporters of the former leader Sheikh Hasina were behind the unrest (The Hindu). Human Rights Watch reports that a worker, Toufiq Hossain, died on 3 November; a co-worker told the group he was beaten by men hired by another factory to tackle the protest (Human Rights Watch). The news reports in our packet do not mention a death. India's foreign ministry said on Tuesday it was following the situation (The Daily Star; The Hindu).

Wednesday 4 November. Clashes broke out between workers and police in Savar and Gazipur, protesters blocked roads, and several factories suspended operations (The Hindu).

Why it matters beyond this week. The industry employs about 4 million workers and brings in more than 80% of Bangladesh's export earnings, as The Hindu and Dawn give it (The Hindu; Dawn). Selim Raihan, an economics professor at the University of Dhaka, said drawn-out unrest could pose a bigger threat to the industry than a pay rise, since it erodes delivery reliability and buyers' confidence, as The Hindu reports (The Hindu). Human Rights Watch notes that the governing BNP promised inflation-linked wages before February's election and that an April amendment to the Labour Act provides for wage reviews every three years (Human Rights Watch). The story was carried by six newsrooms in our sources, based in three regions.

South Africans voted on Wednesday 4 November to elect their municipal councils, after approved special votes were cast on Monday 2 and Tuesday 3 November (Al Jazeera; AllAfrica, carrying SAnews). Polls opened at 7am local time and were due to close at 9pm; a record 29.2 million people were registered to vote at 23,696 stations, according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, and Al Jazeera says more than 1.4 million special votes were cast on the Monday and Tuesday (Al Jazeera). Voters were choosing councils for eight metropolitan municipalities, 44 district councils and 205 local councils, which then choose mayors (Al Jazeera). Results were expected on Sunday, after this window closed (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera); no result is in our sources for this issue. South Africa has 64.0 million people (World Bank, 2024).

The ANC's position. The African National Congress fell below 50 per cent in municipal elections for the first time in 2021, and lost its national parliamentary majority in 2024, after which, as both sources put it, it had to govern in coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and other parties (Al Jazeera; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Opinion polls suggested its support could drop below 40 per cent this time, as both sources report the polls (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera). Reuters reported anger over corruption, crime and failing public services, with unreliable water and electricity among voters' main concerns (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). President Cyril Ramaphosa, after voting in Johannesburg, said "we are determined to rebuild our local government structure" (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters); in his weekly newsletter he wrote that municipal failures had contributed to a decline in public trust and confidence in democratic governance (Al Jazeera). Before the vote, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Minister in the Presidency, urged young people to vote, speaking to SAnews.gov.za in a piece that AllAfrica carries (AllAfrica, carrying SAnews).

Johannesburg and Durban. In Johannesburg, which both sources call the biggest prize, the DA's candidate for mayor is its former leader Helen Zille, 75, whom opinion polls projected to win the most votes but short of a majority (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera); a News24 poll put her at 36 per cent, and she told the Associated Press the ANC was "in free fall" (Al Jazeera). The sources differ on the city's recent turnover of mayors: Reuters says seven since 2021, Al Jazeera five in four years (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera). It was the first local vote for former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, which both sources describe as strong in Durban (Al Jazeera; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters).

Coalitions and security. As of February, 74 of the country's 257 municipalities were run by coalitions or minority administrations, according to the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Al Jazeera). Turnout in 2021 was 46 per cent of registered voters, and police said 21 election-related cases had been recorded since Sunday (Al Jazeera). Al Jazeera says KwaZulu-Natal had 165 voting stations classed as high risk, the most of any province (Al Jazeera).

Why it matters beyond this week. Al Jazeera says the results are expected to shape the contest over who follows Ramaphosa as ANC leader at the party's conference in December 2027; Reuters says the outcome could influence that succession, as Ramaphosa nears the end of his term as leader in 2027, and will help shape the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national election (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera). The vote was carried by five newsrooms in our sources.

Indonesia's national police announced on Tuesday 3 November that they had arrested three senior police officers for allegedly tapping the phone of President Prabowo Subianto and those of officials, politicians, journalists, NGO representatives and businesspeople (The Hindu; Channels TV). On Wednesday 4 November the president sacked his chief of staff, Listyo Sigit Prabowo, who was among the three, Reuters reports as the Express Tribune carries it (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters). Listyo, no relation of the president, had been national police chief before his appointment as chief of staff last month (DW; Japan Times). Indonesia has 283.5 million people (World Bank, 2024). The story was carried by five newsrooms in our sources.

Who was arrested. The Japan Times and Channels TV say police gave only the suspects' initials; The Hindu writes that the police announcement named Listyo (Japan Times; Channels TV; The Hindu). The Japan Times says reporters confirmed with the government that Listyo was among them (Japan Times); Channels TV, on Tuesday, says Yusril Ihza Mahendra, whom it calls the justice minister, identified "LSP" as an active general, and that Indonesian media thought this to be Listyo (Channels TV). The second suspect's initials are given differently, "AHN" by the Japan Times and "ASN" by Channels TV (Japan Times; Channels TV). The head of the police crimes unit, Asep Safrudin, told a news conference late on Tuesday that the numbers were tapped "without any legal basis" and that the suspects had last month ordered wiretapping records deleted (Japan Times; Channels TV). Yusril said the interception began in 2025, about two months into Prabowo's term and went on into this year (Japan Times). Reuters, and reporters in the Japan Times' account, could not immediately reach the suspects or their lawyers (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters; Japan Times).

Treason, or not yet. On Wednesday the presidential spokesperson, Prasetyo Hadi, told reporters that what was done might be seen as "leading to treason" and endangered the head of state's safety (The Hindu). Yusril, at a separate briefing, said the government had found neither a motive nor evidence linking the suspects to treason, and that the investigation was at an early stage (Japan Times). Asep said the alleged offences carry maximum prison terms of ten, six and eight years (Japan Times). Amnesty International in Indonesia urged the authorities on Wednesday to say who had been tapped (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters).

Troops in the capital. The sources give different numbers. DW reports that more than 20,000 troops and personnel had been sent to Jakarta since Monday, as of Wednesday, citing the navy's operations assistant, Vice Admiral Yayan Sofiyan; an armed forces spokesperson, Major General Muhammad Nas, claimed it was standard procedure for maintaining national security, as DW puts it, and DW says the authorities did not officially confirm a link to the scandal (DW). Reuters, as the Express Tribune carries it, says the military spoke of thousands of troops; a navy spokesperson, Tunggul, said late on Wednesday that they were there to safeguard stability and also for training near Jakarta (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters).

The setting. Reuters writes of a rift between Prabowo and his predecessor, Widodo, and says Listyo was known as a Widodo loyalist (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters); The Hindu and Channels TV say the president is under pressure over the economy and the wildfires that issue twelve reported (The Hindu; Channels TV).

Why it matters beyond this week. Amnesty said that, unchecked, the scandal could lead to "a secret police apparatus" used against the opposition, and Sana Jaffrey of the Australian National University said, in Reuters' report, that the deployment might signal concern over tension between the military and police who are loyal to Listyo, and that the immediate risk was unintended escalation (Express Tribune, carrying Reuters).

On Wednesday 4 November the UN's head of peace operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, told journalists in New York that pulling peacekeepers out of Lebanon and Western Sahara risked leaving a dangerous security vacuum, with the Security Council divided over what, if anything, should replace them (UN News; Anadolu). On Monday 2 November Uganda said it had begun withdrawing its troops from Somalia after almost two decades (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; BBC). Lebanon has 5.8 million people, Somalia 19.0 million and Uganda 50.0 million (World Bank, 2024; World Bank, 2024; World Bank, 2024). The Lebanon and Western Sahara story was carried by six newsrooms in our sources, though most of those headlines concerned the end of the Western Sahara mission, not Lacroix's briefing; Uganda's withdrawal was carried by seven newsrooms.

Lebanon. UNIFIL, the UN force on the border with Israel since 1978, is due to stop operating at the end of the year; around 7,500 peacekeepers still serve with it (UN News). Lacroix, just back from Lebanon, said that Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, and its prime minister, Nawaf Salam, had each told him they feared a "security vacuum" in which border incidents could turn into clashes (UN News). He asked whether the Lebanese army and the Israel Defense Forces could be left facing each other "without any third party" (Anadolu). He gave what UN News calls a cautious estimate that about 10,000 people still live between the Blue Line and a forward defence line Israel has set up inside Lebanon, and depend heavily on UNIFIL for aid (UN News; Anadolu). The secretary-general put forward options in June; the Council has yet to agree on any (UN News).

Western Sahara. Issue twelve reported that the UN mission there, MINURSO, lost its mandate at midnight on Saturday 31 October after the Security Council could not agree to renew it. The sources date its end differently: UN News says it closed on 31 October after 35 years (UN News); NPR says it ceased operations on Sunday 1 November, and Reuters, in a report dated 1 November, quotes the secretary-general's statement that the date began the mission's "liquidation phase" (NPR; Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters). On Wednesday Lacroix confirmed it was in liquidation; the UN is urging the parties to show restraint (UN News). Algeria and the Polisario Front say over 160,000 people live in the refugee camps near Tindouf in Algeria, UNHCR says it helps an estimated 90,000 of the most vulnerable there, and Morocco disputes both figures (SCMP).

Somalia. Uganda's acting army spokesperson, Chris Magezi, said on Monday that the first group of troops deployed under a bilateral arrangement with Somalia's government had already returned home, and that all Ugandan forces, including those under the African Union mission AUSSOM, would leave by the end of 2027 (BBC; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). The sources differ on how many Ugandan troops are in Somalia: Reuters cites state media for about 4,500 under AUSSOM and says the number under the bilateral arrangement is unclear (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters); the BBC gives an estimated 4,500 under the AU mission and about 2,000 under bilateral agreements (BBC); Macau Business gives around 6,500-8,500 in all (Macau Business). Reuters reports a 31 October letter from the AU mission, verified by two diplomatic sources, warning that parts of the Lower Shabelle region could be left open to al-Shabaab attacks; Somalia's state minister for foreign affairs, Ali Omar, told Reuters things were "not dire now" but a sudden pull-out could create problems (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters).

Why it matters beyond this week. Lacroix said the UN was losing some of its oldest military deployments, and that nothing guaranteed the countries concerned could keep stable by themselves (UN News). In Somalia, Macau Business reports that the United States said this year it would stop funding a UN logistics mission the AU forces depend on (Macau Business); the BBC says AUSSOM's funding is uncertain and a 12-month transition plan is due to begin in January (BBC).

Congo's National Institute of Public Health, in a report released on Saturday 31 October, before this window, put the outbreak at 10,414 confirmed cases and 5,372 deaths, a reported case-fatality ratio of 51.6 per cent (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg; TASS). Issue eleven reported the count passing ten thousand. Congo has 109.3 million people (World Bank, 2024).

Health officials said a review of records across 97 per cent of affected health zones in Ituri, the epicentre, added 314 earlier deaths to the province's toll; confirmed infections rose by just 140, Bloomberg reports (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg). The institute's experts put the increase down to a retrospective data adjustment in Ituri, not a sudden spike in a single day, as TASS reports (TASS). The previous ratio was 48.6 per cent, which the Straits Times dates to two days earlier and TASS to the week before (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg; TASS).

On Monday 2 November the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention told AFP that the outbreak had killed 5,376 people: 5,372 in Congo and two each in Kenya and Uganda (Euronews; Le Monde); Al Jazeera carries the same figures (Al Jazeera). Al Jazeera gives some 10,444 cases across Congo, Uganda and Kenya, and Le Monde the same total, which differs from the institute's confirmed count for Congo (Al Jazeera; Le Monde). Euronews calls it the fastest-growing and most widespread Ebola epidemic on record (Euronews).

Why it matters beyond this week. The health authorities are still reporting dozens of new infections a day from an epidemic that has reached eight provinces and 67 health zones (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg). Le Monde reports that the response lacks means in remote infected areas where armed groups complicate movement, and that health and aid workers meet distrust from local people (Le Monde). The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine or treatment (Euronews; Al Jazeera).

Our watchlist reads a file from the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration before every issue. The file holds the Oceanic Niño Index: how far the surface of a stretch of the equatorial Pacific is from its usual temperature for the time of year, averaged over three months. Issue four ran this index when it passed 2.0. The watchlist flagged it again because the newest value is higher than the one we read last time: for August to October 2026 it is 2.46°C above average, up from 2.16 for July to September, a rise of 0.30 in one season (NOAA, index file). We then compared that value with the rest of the file. The comparisons below are ours; the numbers are NOAA's.

The file begins in 1950 and holds 921 overlapping three-month seasons. Only two of them are higher than 2.46: November to January 2015 to 2016, at 2.59, and December 2015 to February 2016, at 2.50, the two highest seasons of the El Niño of 2015 to 2016. The other 918 seasons all sit below the index's present value (NOAA, index file).

Source: our reading of the NOAA index file, retrieved on 6 November 2026. Values are degrees Celsius above the average for the season. These are the values as we found them that day.

Three things stand out. The August to October value is the highest the file holds for that season, by a wide margin: the next highest is 2.04, in 1997, so this year is 0.42 above it. The index has already passed the highest point of the 1997 to 1998 episode, by 0.09, and of the 1982 to 1983 episode, by 0.32; only the two highest seasons of the 2015 to 2016 episode remain above it, the peak by 0.13. And in February to April the index stood at 0.11, so it has risen 2.35 in six months (NOAA, index file). Whether it passes 2.59 depends on the coming seasons; in the three earlier episodes the peak came three or four seasons after August to October.

NOAA's own forecasters said on 8 October that El Niño "continues to strengthen" and that a "strong-to-very strong" event is likely to last through January to March 2027, a chance they put above 83%. They gave an 83% chance for October to December of "a historic event" that would exceed every El Niño since 1950, and said that with an event of this magnitude the chances of the usual effects "are larger, though not guaranteed" (NOAA, monthly statement). The next statement is scheduled for 12 November, after this issue.

Confidence. The same three cautions as in issue four. NOAA's threshold for a historic event, 2.5°C, is stated for a measure its statement calls RONI, not for the index our watchlist reads, so the 83% should not be set directly against the 2.46 or the 2.59 above. The index measures ocean temperature in one region, not what an El Niño does to people. And the thread we opened in issue two follows a projection of deaths from heat during this El Niño; nothing here tests that projection. What the file shows is that the index is now higher than at any point in the episodes of 1982 and 1997, and the 2015 episode did not pass this level until November to January.

The watchlist's other movement was in IOM's count of people recorded dead or missing on migration routes this year, which rose from 5,251 to 5,280 between our readings, with the latest incident in the file dated 4 November (IOM, incident file). That count was the slow story in issues nine and eleven, and this issue does not run it again.

• The El Niño projection. From issue two. NOAA's index reached 2.46 for August to October; see the slow story. Seen in headlines only, not read: Bolivia declaring a national emergency over drought, the Philippines pushing a price freeze, warnings of Rift Valley fever risk in eastern Africa, and Le Monde describing the event's progress as unprecedented. Nothing read tests the projection of heat deaths itself.
• Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo. From issue three. The toll passes 5,300 and the fatality rate tops 50 per cent after a retrospective adjustment; see Still happening.
• Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. From issue one. Read this time. On Tuesday Iran's Revolutionary Guards' navy said three tankers had struck sea mines and caught fire (Tehran Times). On Wednesday the Guards said four "non-compliant" tankers were destroyed after striking naval mines, a day after Trump said the US had launched strikes on Iran (The Hindu; France 24). On Thursday the Guards and the army said five tankers and a tugboat had caught fire since Wednesday night; Reuters counts three for the Thursday (Anadolu; Al Jazeera; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). The sources do not say whether the three, four and five overlap. No vessel was named in Wednesday's statement or Thursday's midday report, and maritime officials had not confirmed the incidents (IranWire; Anadolu; The Hindu). IranWire says US Central Command has repeatedly dismissed Iran's mine reports as inaccurate (IranWire).
• Ethiopia and Tigray. From issue two. Read this time. On Monday 2 November the WHO's Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said violence in northern Ethiopia was pushing "an already fragile health system closer to collapse", after pre-window drone strikes in which, he said, children were among those reported killed at an Amhara displacement camp (Al Jazeera; UN News). The same day the TPLF, via its affiliated Dimtsi Weyane station, claimed 500 soldiers and allied fighters killed and 800 wounded near Aksum on Saturday, before the window, figures Anadolu says could not be verified (Anadolu). The UN says families who had returned to Tahtay Adiyabo in Tigray have fled again (AllAfrica, carrying Addis Standard). A former US contractor has pleaded guilty, the BBC reports without a date, to passing classified intelligence to Ethiopia from 2021 to 2023, including material he hoped would help target Tigrayan fighters (BBC).
• Displacement out of Yemen. From issue one. Seen in headlines only, not read: the UN's relief chief urging the parties to open roads into Taiz, UN agencies on the city's shortages, the death of a UN staff member in Houthi detention, and reports of Houthi forces advancing towards Aden and fighting in al-Jawf.
• India's voter rolls. From issue four. Seen in headlines only, not read: the home minister challenging Rahul Gandhi to a parliamentary debate on the roll revision and Gandhi's counter-challenge, the Election Commission clarifying how previously enrolled voters can apply for inclusion, and a bribery allegation against the chief election commissioner referred for examination in Kerala.
• Venezuela's transition. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: Marco Rubio meeting Venezuela's new foreign minister and pressing for election preparations and the release of political prisoners, and a Venezuelan army attack on a Colombian rebel camp reported to have killed at least 19.
• Brazil's run-off. From issue four. Seen in headlines only, not read: Flávio Bolsonaro's first public appearance in Florida since leaving Brazil, and an investigation into help he is alleged to have received in leaving.

No thread closed in this issue, by rule or by judgment. Ethiopia and Tigray, which the previous issue said was one issue from closing, was read this time. The review found nothing to close.

Paraguay's bank intervention. The intervention of Ueno bank, with millions of account holders locked out, protests, and pressure on President Santiago Peña, scored seven and was carried by thirteen independent reports in our sources, in Spanish and in English. It was the most widely carried story not to run: the five places in "What moved" went to stories that scored nine, and the two stories that scored eight are below. The issue says so here rather than leave it unmentioned.

Reactions to the lead. JD Vance blaming the Iran war for his party's defeat, and Trump's defence of the war, scored seven on eighteen independent reports; the lead piece carries what its own sources say of it. Oil falling below $90 a barrel scored seven on three, after the headlines about Vance's remarks were set aside from its cluster. North Korea's denial of the Binance theft scored eight: issue twelve reported the theft and the FBI's attribution, and a denial adds nothing to the money's whereabouts. Iran's reports of tankers hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz scored seven and were read for the thread line above.

Other stories passed over. A cyberattack on European supermarket refrigeration scored eight on four independent reports, all explainers whose headlines do not say how many people were affected. The International Court of Justice's coming ruling on the Rohingya genocide case scored six: a date, not yet a ruling. Bomb threats that diverted flights across Europe, called hoaxes by an official, scored six on eighteen independent reports. Joshua Wong's additional ten-year sentence in Hong Kong scored six. Among the most widely carried stories in the pool were Russell Brand's conviction, with twenty-three independent reports from newsrooms in eight regions, and tributes to a Tenerife footballer who died, with seventeen; both scored nothing for scale. All counts are of our own sources, and every candidate is on the scorecard below with its marks.

Ebola, outside the pool. The Ebola toll ran under Still happening although no cluster about it reached the pool. The grouping split identical headlines about the toll into one-headline clusters, none of which passed the corroboration floor on its own, and the only Ebola cluster that did pass it, about a British patient's evacuation, fell outside the Europe quota. The story was fetched into its own packet from the window's headlines, and because it has no coverage record the piece states no count of our sources. The same over-splitting is listed as a known problem on the how stories are chosen page.

Researched and written by an AI system working to a published rubric, with every source linked. The issue covers four days, Monday to Thursday, and was written on the Friday, as planned. The window is set by when our sources published, in universal time. The window's 27,030 headlines were sorted into 17,410 clusters; 37 candidates were carried forward, of which three were folded into others as the same development, leaving 34, each marked by one AI and checked by a second that saw only the marks. Seven candidates were researched and written up, two of them as the one piece on peacekeepers, along with the Ebola toll from outside the pool, two packets read for thread lines, and NOAA's and IOM's files for the watchlist. Every figure above was fetched and read during this run.

The second AI disputed one mark: it would have given the Indonesia arrests one for trend rather than two, because the first AI's reason cited headlines about a rift between the president and his predecessor that were not on its sheet. The first AI's mark stands, with the dispute printed beside it. The second AI also noted that the attention-gap mark runs a notch generous for mid-sized stories (Indonesia, South Africa and Bangladesh all carry the top mark), that the first AI's reasons for South Africa quoted headlines not on the sheet, and that two reasons for the Australia social-media case rested on outside knowledge; each is marked as background on the scorecard. Headlines the software had attached to the wrong story were set aside by hand on the word of the first AI: a family doctor's murder conviction grouped with Russell Brand's, early releases of other convicts grouped with Joshua Wong's sentence, Vance's and Iranian officials' statements on the election grouped with the oil price, two US election live pages grouped with an Indian film release, an analysis of US-China ties grouped with Tesla's market value, and a Hong Kong trip and a Cyprus analysis grouped with a China-Russia defence meeting. Each is listed on the scorecard, where its label reads "set aside by the grouping check".

The second AI repeated a standing note, with new examples, that newsrooms not on our own list are placed in the region of the Google News edition that surfaced them, not where they are based, which inflates the region count for stories carried mainly through Google editions. That is a known problem, listed on the how stories are chosen page. The feeds retired on 2 November, Global Times and Xinhua, still appear in the completeness check as silent; the window itself was complete, every day and every region.