Open
Arctic militarisation
Why it is being followed: Permanent military installations change a region's security arrangements for decades, and the Arctic is being militarised by agreement rather than by conflict, which attracts far less attention than the reverse would.
-
2026-09-22 · not in a published issueThe United States, Denmark and Greenland signed a security agreement at the UN General Assembly, with two new US defence areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and expansion of the existing Pituffik Space Base. Denmark's account of the agreement and Trump's differ on whether it places Arctic security under NATO or under Washington.
The Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints
Why it is being followed: Two of the world's most heavily used shipping lanes are closed or contested at the same time. The consequences reach anyone who buys fuel or imported goods, which is close to everyone, and the coverage is a fraction of what a disruption of that size would normally attract.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueA merchant ship, the Cape Dao, was attacked about 2.5 nautical miles off Oman's Musandam coast; one crew member, an Indian seafarer, was killed and 27 were evacuated by Oman's navy. Sources disagree on the weapon: a seafarers' union said torpedoes, the UK maritime office said an unidentified projectile, Oman said only that the ship was targeted. Nobody named as responsible. Last week's reopening diplomacy has not produced a reopening.
-
2026-09-22 · not in a published issueIran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports; the proposal reached Washington through mediators on 16 September. Italy and Iran discussed reopening at the General Assembly, and Putin and the Saudi crown prince called for safe passage through both straits. Saudi Arabia is exporting oil through the Suez Canal instead.
Russia's political system after the war
Why it is being followed: A legislature for 144 million people has been reshaped in a way that outlasts any single election, and the gap between the official result and independent estimates of it is itself the thing worth following.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueTwo developments reported but not researched this week: Latvia moved to block the EU's lifting of sanctions on the businessmen Usmanov and Fridman, and the United States invited President Putin to a G20 summit in December. Both to be looked at properly next week.
-
2026-09-22 · not in a published issueUnited Russia took a record 355 of 450 Duma seats in the first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine. The only registered anti-war party was barred from the ballot, 49 war veterans were seated, and independent analysts put real turnout near 40% against an official 59% and the party's real support near 34% against an official 58%.
Displacement out of Yemen
Why it is being followed: Movements of people persist for years after the fighting that caused them, and this one is being reported by very few outlets relative to the number of people involved.
-
2026-09-22 · not in a published issueOpened but not written up. The UN warned that more than 10,000 people could leave Yemen for Djibouti in the coming months as fighting intensifies; the story scored well enough to run and was not among the three researched this week.
Ethiopia and Tigray
Why it is being followed: A country of 132 million on the edge of a return to a war that the African Union's mediator estimated killed some 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022. Three outlets in our sources carried the day it began; a Hollywood sentencing the same day got thirty-one.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueEthiopia's government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front each accused the other of launching an offensive. Tigrayan forces took the airports at Mekelle, Shire and Axum; Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights; fighting reported in Afar at Abala and Erebti. Reuters described the 2022 Pretoria agreement as shattered. The TPLF had announced an alliance with six other armed groups days earlier.
South Sudan's first election
Why it is being followed: A state that has never held an election, with 11.9 million people, is three months from one. Whether it happens, and whether it means anything, will shape the country's next decade.
-
2026-09-23 · the issuePresident Kiir dissolved the transitional government, removed the five vice-presidents and dissolved parliament under an elections-law amendment signed the day before, which also removed the requirement for a permanent constitution and a census first. Election set for 22 December. Opposition leader Riek Machar under house arrest since March 2025; the elections commission chairman dismissed the previous week. Amnesty warned that legitimacy depends on people being able to exercise their rights freely.
The Himalayan glacier risk
Why it is being followed: Nepal's August disaster was caused by a glacier collapse that scientists say warming probably weakened, and the UN says the same can happen again anywhere in the range. Hundreds of millions live downstream of the Himalayas.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueA month on: the UN's UNOPS described one community of 400 homes as completely obliterated and warned the disaster can recur across the Himalayas. Death toll reported between 1,200 and 1,411 depending on the source, with 5,000 to 6,000 missing; Nepal's finance minister expects the final figure to reach 10,000. Nepal has asked the Loss and Damage Fund for $20 million; its environment minister said 'We don't need sympathy. We need justice.'
Venezuela's transition
Why it is being followed: Since the capture of Nicolas Maduro in January, who governs Venezuela's 28 million people turns on who Washington recognises. Spanish- and Portuguese-language outlets follow this closely; English-language ones much less.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueActing president Delcy Rodriguez met Trump in New York for the first time, at a hotel less than 15 km from the Brooklyn jail holding Maduro. During the same hours the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado tried three times to re-enter Venezuela from Panama and failed, her seventh failed attempt since leaving in December 2025. Bloomberg: Washington's closeness to Rodriguez is testing its stated commitment to a democratic transition.
The El Nino projection
Why it is being followed: The Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027 from a super El Nino, concentrated in the Sahel, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, India and Brazil. A projection with a date on it is a thing that can be checked. This thread exists to check it.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueProjection published 23 September: 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide to end-February 2027; Sahel 66,800 with nearly half in Nigeria; Indonesia 19,300; Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia 19,400; India 15,800; Brazil 13,300; Australia 260. Methodology not yet peer-reviewed. The WHO separately called the El Nino a significant public health threat. Hurricane Polo reached category 5 off Mexico the same week.
Deaths in custody in Nigeria
Why it is being followed: Reports that 33 or 37 people died in a single cell. Dozens dying in state custody is the kind of story that is either a scandal or nothing, depending entirely on whether anyone keeps looking.
-
2026-09-23 · the issueOpened but not written up. The BBC reported a survivor's account of 33 cellmates dying; a separate report put the figure at 37 suspected illegal miners in the custody of a civil-defence agency. Only four outlets carried it. Held this week because the figures disagree; first in line next week.
Closed
None yet. A thread is closed when it stops moving, and the reason is recorded here rather than the thread simply vanishing.