Congo's Ebola count passes ten thousand

Data from the health ministry of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, released on Tuesday 27 October, put confirmed Ebola cases at 10,060 and deaths at 4,887 since the outbreak was declared in May (Al Jazeera; France 24); China Daily Asia dates the count to 25 October (China Daily Asia). On Monday 26 October Nigeria's only confirmed patient was flown to Switzerland; the WHO's regional director for Africa, Mohamed Janabi, said Nigeria "currently has no Ebola cases", stressing that vigilance remained critical (PBS, carrying AP). The story was carried by twenty newsrooms in our sources. Congo has 109.3 million people and Nigeria 232.7 million (World Bank, 2024; World Bank, 2024). Issue nine reported Nigeria's first case since the 2014 outbreak.

Congo, the count. Xinhua reported on Monday that the health authorities' latest report gave 9,964 confirmed cases and 4,841 deaths as of Saturday (Xinhua); Premium Times gives the same numbers as a WHO update to 24 October (Premium Times), while Reuters says the public health institute reported 9,964 on Friday 23 October (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). UN News, citing the health ministry, gives 10,141 cases, without saying whether all are confirmed, and nearly 5,000 deaths as of Monday (UN News). AP reports that about 80 per cent of recorded cases still come from outside monitored contacts; the Africa CDC has said at least 95 per cent must come from known contacts for the outbreak to be largely under control (Daily Press, carrying AP). At a briefing before the window, the Africa CDC's Wessam Mankoula put the share of confirmed cases found among known contacts at only about 12 per cent (China Daily Asia).

Nigeria, Monday 26 October. The health minister, Muhammad Ali Pate, wrote on X that the patient left Abuja that morning with her husband, who had no symptoms; she was "clinically much improved", he wrote, but "this does not mean she is not still infectious" (Channels TV; Daily Trust). Switzerland's Federal Office of Public Health said the couple arrived that day, she in Geneva and he in isolation in Zurich (PBS, carrying AP; France 24, carrying AFP). Janabi said Nigeria would keep following 52 contacts and Switzerland the husband, contact number 53 (Premium Times). Jide Idris, head of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Channels Television, by his own somewhat unclear count, that a ride-hailing driver who had taken her to the first hospital brought the primary contacts to 54 (Channels TV). AP calls her a Swiss woman and her husband a Swiss diplomat; the BBC, citing the Africa CDC's Jean Kaseya, and SCMP add that she was born in Uganda (PBS, carrying AP; BBC; SCMP). Where she was infected is unsettled. Kaseya told Reuters her travel documents showed she had not been to Congo, contradicting Ugandan officials (SCMP); Switzerland's foreign ministry told AP the week before that she was believed to have been infected in Uganda (PBS, carrying AP); and Uganda's health ministry said on Sunday 25 October, before the window, that both countries were still establishing her movements (BBC).

Europe's disease agency. Euronews reports, without giving the day, that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has sent a team to Nigeria to give "advice and technical support to the EU Delegation in Abuja" (Euronews).

Bafwasende, Tshopo province, just before the window. A nurse was killed and another health worker seriously injured while responding to an Ebola alert. The WHO's Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus dated the attack to Saturday 24 October (Al Jazeera), as did the UN's Ebola coordinator, Julien Harneis, writing on Sunday of the killing "yesterday"; Reuters, which spoke to a local health official, dates it to Friday 23 October (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). UN News says protesters killed the nurse (UN News); the BBC, citing the UN-backed Radio Okapi, says local youths accused the two of contaminating water sources (BBC). Xinhua, citing local media, says local authorities rejected that accusation as rumour (Xinhua). On Monday 26 October the official told Reuters that colleagues afraid to go home were sheltering in the hospital, guarded by police (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters).

Why it matters beyond this week. Kenya's tally has risen to nine confirmed cases, two of them fatal, and the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak has no approved vaccine or treatment, Al Jazeera reports (Al Jazeera). Pate had said earlier, on a date Premium Times does not give, that Nigeria could declare its outbreak over on 7 December at the earliest if no more confirmed or probable cases appear (Premium Times); Idris said on Monday the country was "still not out of the woods" (Channels TV).

The Central Committee of China's Communist Party met behind closed doors in Beijing from Monday 26 to Thursday 29 October, for a four-day session on party discipline (BBC; Al Jazeera; Express Tribune). Its communiqué came on Thursday, inside our window. The BBC reports that it announced 33 expulsions, a number the BBC calls a record, 16 of them from the military (BBC); NPR reports that the plenum reviewed the earlier purges and confirmed the personnel changes (NPR). China has 1.41 billion people (World Bank, 2024). Eight newsrooms based in five regions carried the story in our sources.

Monday 26 October. Xi Jinping opened the session with a work report and a draft decision on "full and rigorous party self-governance", the state news agency Xinhua reported (The Hindu; NPR; SCMP). In a January speech that state media published before the plenum, Xi had attacked "two-faced" officials who seem to follow orders but "inwardly resist" (Al Jazeera). SCMP reported a state commentary defending the anti-corruption campaign as a success (SCMP); the Express Tribune quoted a Xinhua commentary saying the drive "signals greater predictability" for investors (Express Tribune). Analysts told AFP that Xi is seeking efficiency and loyalty through more supervision and rules, The Hindu reports (The Hindu).

The purge figures, as each outlet counts them. As the plenum opened, The Hindu and Al Jazeera reported that eight Central Committee seats were vacant and 15 more members were under investigation, without naming who counted them (The Hindu; Al Jazeera). SCMP counted 35 full members of the 205-member committee who were under investigation or had lost their seats in the national legislature (SCMP). Neil Thomas and colleagues at the Asia Society Policy Institute estimate that 42 of the 44 officials affiliated with the military who were elected full Central Committee members in 2022 have been purged or have disappeared (NPR; BBC).

Attendance. When the meeting opened on Monday, The Hindu, Al Jazeera and the BBC put attendance at roughly 300 (The Hindu; Al Jazeera; BBC). After the plenum closed, the BBC reported attendance of 279, against 315 at the fourth plenum in October 2025, and called it the first time in Xi's 14 years that attendance fell below 300 (BBC). Thomas calculated a 74 per cent attendance rate, the lowest since Mao Zedong's time, NPR reports (NPR).

Thursday 29 October: personnel. The plenum elected General Zhang Shengmin, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, to the Politburo (NPR). The BBC says the commission had been reduced to two members, Xi and Zhang, and that his promotion brings the Politburo to 22 (BBC). Among those expelled the BBC names former Xinjiang party chief Ma Xingrui and former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and says former diplomat Liu Jianchao was also named among the purged (BBC). In its statement, the party said it had faced a "grim reality": that its leadership had at times been "weakened or hollowed out", the BBC reports (BBC). NPR says the meeting adopted a resolution on self-governance, discipline and anti-corruption (NPR).

Why it matters beyond this week. The plenum comes about a year before a party congress at which Xi is widely expected to win a fourth term (NPR; Al Jazeera). In NPR's report as the plenum opened, Thomas noted that Xi had purged many of those he promoted at the last congress, and said to "watch for tougher scrutiny" of officials competing to join Xi's next leadership team (NPR).

Israelis voted on Tuesday 27 October in the country's first general election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; PBS, carrying AP). Israel has 10.0 million people (World Bank, 2024). The Central Elections Committee put turnout at 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999, Middle East Eye reports (Middle East Eye), and Reuters as the highest in more than two decades (Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters). One Guardian report alone called it the highest in 50 years (The Guardian); the Guardian's own live page says since 1999 (The Guardian, live page). The story reached twenty-eight independent reports from newsrooms based in eight regions in our sources.

Exit polls, Tuesday night. The first exit polls, from Channels 11, 12 and 13, put Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc on 52 or 53 of the 120 seats, Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc on 50, and the Arab-majority lists Ra'am and the Joint List on 17 or 18 (Channels TV; PBS, carrying AP). In the revised polls, the Guardian's live page, Reuters and Al Jazeera agree that two had the blocs level, at 51 each by the Guardian's and Al Jazeera's figures; the Guardian and Reuters name them as Kan 11 and Channel 13 (The Guardian, live page; Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera). They differ on the third: Reuters says Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's camp a narrow edge and Al Jazeera that the third put his bloc three seats ahead, while the Guardian has Channel 12 at 52 for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu (Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters; Al Jazeera; The Guardian, live page). Rappler alone reports all three networks' updates as 52 to 50 for Eisenkot's bloc (Rappler). None gave either bloc the 61 seats needed for a majority (Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters).

The count, Wednesday and Thursday. With nearly 77 per cent counted by 12:30pm local time (10:30 GMT), the committee's partial results gave Netanyahu's bloc 54 seats, the opposition 49 and the Arab lists 17 (Middle East Eye). With nearly 86 per cent counted on Wednesday, Israel's three main broadcasters projected 53 for Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for Eisenkot's and 19 for Arab-led parties, which Dawn calls unprecedented (Dawn). On Thursday 29 October, with 90 per cent counted, NPR gave 53 and 48, with Arab-led parties on about 19, without saying whose tally that was (NPR). Election officials told NPR they expected to finish counting, soldiers' ballots included, by Thursday afternoon (NPR). Our sources carry no final count from inside the window. With results still coming in, the BBC said it "currently appears" Netanyahu had "done better than was widely predicted" (BBC), while Middle East Eye said early results showed Palestinian citizens had "upended the election" (Middle East Eye).

Likud's claim, Wednesday. On Wednesday Likud issued a statement saying the election had been "stolen by Arab parties", accusing them of corruption, threats, violence and the use of prohibited software, and said it was submitting testimonies and evidence to the authorities (France 24, live page). On polling day Netanyahu had suggested in a recorded message that Arabs and the left were trying to steal the election; the committee rejected that, saying it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering (The Guardian).

Coalition arithmetic. With 41.9 per cent of ballot boxes counted on Wednesday, Anadolu, citing Times of Israel projections drawn from committee data, said the Arab parties' projected 16 seats would give Eisenkot's bloc 63 if they agreed to support it (Anadolu). Early on Wednesday Netanyahu said Israel must not set up "a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties" (Al Jazeera). Dawn says Eisenkot ruled out governing with Arab lawmakers during the campaign, and Reuters that he "all but ruled out" a government with them (Dawn; Daily Maverick, carrying Reuters). NPR says he left some room for collaboration on conditions, including that the parties denounce Hamas, and the Guardian's live page lists four such conditions (NPR; The Guardian, live page). On Wednesday Yair Golan, whose Democrats sit in Eisenkot's camp, called for a government "in partnership with Israel's Arab citizens" (Dawn), and the Joint List's Yousef Jabareen told AFP the list could support an alternative government from outside the coalition (France 24, live page).

After the window. On Friday 30 October, after the window closed, the Central Elections Committee published final results: 53 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for Eisenkot's and 19 for the Joint List and Ra'am, with Likud the largest party on 27 and turnout of 77.9 per cent, JNS reports; the committee said the results, subject to minor corrections, would go to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday 4 November (JNS; CNBC).

Why it matters beyond this week. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister during any coalition talks, and potentially until another election next year, Dawn reports (Dawn). The BBC says Herzog will consult party leaders once he has the final results, and the candidate he asks to form a coalition has a maximum of six weeks (BBC).

Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on Sunday 25 October, and Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to the student-led Student List late that night, before our window opened (Meduza; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; The Moscow Times). Serbia has 6.6 million people (World Bank, 2024). He is the former president, having resigned in September to seek the prime minister's post (Meduza; The Moscow Times); the BBC and Reuters also call him Serbia's long-standing or longtime leader (BBC; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Conceding, he said his party's projection, based on a sample before final results, gave the Student List 135 to 140 of the 250 seats and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) around 105 (Korea Herald, carrying AP; Meduza). The story came from fourteen independent reports in our sources, from newsrooms based in seven regions.

Monday 26 October: the count. On the students' seats the figures roughly agree; on Vučić's, two are close and one is lower. The BBC says the election commission, with 97 per cent of polling stations counted, gave the students 2.25 million votes to the SNS's 1.67 million, and 52.7 per cent to 39.2 per cent in preliminary figures late on Monday morning (BBC). The Guardian's live page that day gave 52.6 per cent to 39.22 per cent with 96.9 per cent processed, and a CeSID projection of 140 seats for the students and 103 for Vučić's bloc, with 126 needed for a majority (Guardian, live page). The Express Tribune, with almost 99 per cent counted, gave the commission's 52.7 per cent to 39.2 per cent and put the seats at 139 for the students and 97 for the SNS-led alliance, without saying who calculated the split; that is fewer for Vučić's side than his projection or CeSID's, and leaves more seats to minority parties than CeSID's seven (Express Tribune; Guardian, live page). None of these is a final result.

Monday: observers and reactions. International observers said in a preliminary statement that equality of campaign opportunities was "seriously compromised", though election day was assessed positively in the vast majority of polling stations observed, with reported incidents of physical violence raising "serious concerns"; the domestic group CRTA urged the new authorities to put restoring the integrity of elections among their top priorities (Guardian, live page). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Moscow valued Vučić's contribution and hoped the new authorities would work constructively, adding "it takes two to tango" (The Moscow Times); Reuters said he stopped short of congratulating the students (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). The same day Jovo Bakić, a Student List representative, told RT Balkan there would be no change in policy towards Russia, including no sanctions (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters, on Moscow; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters, on the movement).

What comes next. Under the constitution, the students have 90 days to form a government once parliament convenes after final results, Reuters reports (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). A presidential election must be held by 27 December, the Guardian's live page said (Guardian, live page); parliament speaker Ana Brnabić is filling the post as caretaker, according to the BBC (BBC). The movement has no named leader; the Guardian's live page said former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić is widely seen as frontrunner for prime minister, though it said the movement's way of deciding makes the choice hard to predict (Guardian, live page).

Why it matters beyond this week. Senior EU officials welcomed the result, Euronews reports, and the enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, said "the door to the EU is open" (Euronews; BBC). An EU diplomat told Euronews it was "not exactly clear" where the movement stands on relations beyond Serbia's borders, pointing to Serbia's weak alignment with the bloc, and Euronews notes that the programme the Student List published last month deals only with governing at home: public procurement, education, media freedom, judicial independence and health care (Euronews). In Moscow, Reuters reported gloom; analyst Fyodor Lukyanov said "Russia has nothing good to look forward to" (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters).

On Thursday 29 October the European Central Bank said its president, Christine Lagarde, had told its Governing Council and the European Council president, António Costa, that she will step down on 7 February 2027 (Channels TV; DW). Her term would otherwise have ended in October 2027 (DW). Most outlets put the gap at about nine months; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters, and Sahara Reporters say eight (Al Jazeera; Euronews; France 24; The Guardian; The Hindu; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; Sahara Reporters). The euro area has 357.6 million people (World Bank, 2024). Twelve independent reports from newsrooms based in six regions carried it in our sources.

"Step down" or "resign". The ECB's statement says "step down", and so do Al Jazeera, Euronews, France 24, DW and The Guardian (Channels TV; Al Jazeera; Euronews; France 24; DW; The Guardian), as does her own post (Sahara Reporters). The Hindu and Sahara Reporters write that she will resign, Rappler that she announced her resignation, and the SCMP calls it her resignation (The Hindu; Sahara Reporters; Rappler; SCMP).

Her reasons. The ECB gave none (Euronews). In a video she spoke of leaving with "a sense of good work done" (DW; Al Jazeera). At her press conference she said, "I don't think that I can remain neutral" (Euronews; Japan Times). She said she wanted "the freedom of speech, the freedom of expression", that officials have "an obligation of neutrality" and that the mandate is "the price we pay for being independent", and that she saw the truth "very often damaged, contradicted by misrepresentation", without elaborating (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; The Guardian). She did not say which matters she meant, or answer whether she timed her exit so a successor could be chosen before France's election (Japan Times), and declined to say what job she will take next (Euronews). A source cited by Reuters said she resigned so she could speak on political issues in France and around the world (Sahara Reporters); the SCMP carries the same account from an unnamed source (SCMP). The Guardian reports she has been tipped to run the World Economic Forum; the Japan Times calls it a likely destination and says the WEF declined to comment (The Guardian; Japan Times).

Succession. Costa said the process "will be initiated today and will proceed without delay" (Channels TV). Klaas Knot of the Netherlands and Pablo Hernández de Cos of Spain are widely seen as front runners; The Guardian also names Joachim Nagel and Nadia Calviño (Rappler; Euronews; The Guardian). The post is likely to be settled in a package with the seats of Isabel Schnabel, leaving in early January, and chief economist Philip Lane, due to go in May (Japan Times).

Policy. Hours later the bank held its deposit rate at 2.5 per cent, with inflation at 3.8 per cent in September (Euronews). Lagarde said the council had debated a hike, and insisted there would be "perfect continuity of business" (Euronews). Holger Schmieding of Berenberg said her early exit "does not change the outlook for ECB policies" (The Hindu).

How it was framed. Al Jazeera, Rappler and the Japan Times say the timing lets today's EU leaders pick her replacement ahead of France's presidential vote. Polls show Marine Le Pen favoured to win it, according to Rappler and the Japan Times; Al Jazeera says they suggest it; Channels TV and France 24 say far-right and far-left candidates lead the polls (Al Jazeera; Rappler; Japan Times; Channels TV; France 24). The Guardian reports speculation that President Emmanuel Macron encouraged her to go early (The Guardian). Paul De Grauwe of the London School of Economics called the timing "debasing the institution", saying it followed "the purely political calculus of the French president"; Reuters notes Lagarde and Macron have not addressed such criticism directly (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Jean-Philippe Tanguy of Le Pen's National Rally said: "Another insult in our direction — lamentable." (Japan Times). Macron said the transition must be prepared "in an orderly and balanced manner" (Al Jazeera).

Why it matters beyond this week. Euronews says half of the ECB's six-member Executive Board will change hands within five months (Euronews).

Issue ten reported Brazil's electoral court calling the run-off for Lula just after that window closed, and, by Al Jazeera's account, Flávio Bolsonaro saying he would call for the result to be annulled; Reuters and France 24 have since reported the same (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters; France 24). Brazil has 212.0 million people (World Bank, 2024). He faces two Supreme Court investigations, into suspected irregularities in financing a film about his father and into alleged money laundering; he denies wrongdoing (BBC; G1).

Monday 26 October. Bolsonaro said in a video that police had asked for his passports and barred him from leaving; he said he would comply and denied planning to flee (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). AP and Euronews report the order came from the Supreme Court (PBS, carrying AP; Euronews). His Liberal Party has recognised the result, Al Jazeera reports (Al Jazeera).

Tuesday 27 October. After he missed a deadline to hand in his passports, a police source told AFP they were cancelled; AFP also reported, citing Italian documents, that he has held Italian nationality since 2023 (Euronews; The Hindu; Channels TV). A senior State Department official said the US would issue visas to him and his family (Al Jazeera). Folha de São Paulo, citing people close to the family, reported the US would grant him asylum, France 24 says; the spokesman for Argentina's president, Javier Milei, said there was "no asylum request" (France 24; PBS, carrying AP). Lula called the departure "shameful" (Al Jazeera).

The route. Argentina's migration authority said on Wednesday that the family crossed the Tancredo Neves International Bridge at 10:50pm on Tuesday, then flew towards Guayaquil, Ecuador (PBS, carrying AP). Accounts of the crossing differ: Al Jazeera's John Holman said it was "on a rope bridge, on foot"; the Guardian cites footage of two vans crossing the checkpoint and says how he reached the border is unclear (Al Jazeera; The Guardian).

Wednesday 28 October. The plane landed near Miami that morning (BBC). The Guardian said Brazilian papers had reported humanitarian visas (The Guardian). In a statement, Al Jazeera reports, he called himself "the true elected president of Brazil" (Reuters quotes "the elected president", the Guardian "true president"); he then replaced that letter on X with one calling himself Brazil's "leader" (Al Jazeera; ThePrint, carrying Reuters; The Guardian). AP and the Guardian say he fled; he wrote: "I did not flee Brazil" (PBS, carrying AP; ThePrint, carrying Reuters).

Why it matters beyond this week. Reuters says his claim poses a problem for Washington amid a rift with Brazil (ThePrint, carrying Reuters).

Issue ten read the International Organization for Migration's count of people recorded dead or missing on migration routes this year at 5,018 with data to 19 October; it now stands at 5,251 with data to 23 October, a rise of 233 (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). More than half of that rise, 121, is one row dated 9 April 2026, which IOM types as a "Split Incident"; it was absent from our copies of 16, 23 and 26 October: a record arriving late, not new deaths this week. Our copies go back only to 16 October, so we cannot say whether it was in the file before then (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

The Andaman Sea row. The row records 121 people missing and no recorded dead, somewhere in the Andaman Sea close to the Andaman Islands, which the row describes as a union territory of India, on the route IOM calls "Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea" (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). The row gives the cause as "Mixed or unknown" and the country of origin as "Bangladesh,Mixed" (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). IOM lists eight sources for the row: itself, UNHCR, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, The Daily Star, AP News, Rohingya Khobor, and Action Against Rohingya Atrocities (AARA) (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

What was reported in April. UNHCR and IOM said in April that at least 250 people, Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi nationals among them, were feared dead or missing after a trawler from Teknaf, in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar district, sank on its way to Malaysia; IOM said it reportedly went down on 9 April, and Bangladesh's coast guard said nine people were rescued that day (WSLS, carrying AP). Citing preliminary information, Aaj English reported that the boat carried some 280 people and left Bangladesh on 4 April (Aaj English). We found no other row in the file for this sinking: it holds 121 missing against the agencies' at least 250, and our sources do not explain the difference (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file; WSLS, carrying AP).

The Gambia, now in the file. Issue nine reported that the sinking off Jinack Kajata was not yet in the file; it is now, dated 13 October, with 12 dead off Jinack Island, citing IOM Gambia, IOM Senegal, the Gambian Red Cross and Seneweb (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Issue nine reported the Red Cross saying the number missing was uncertain; the row records none (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

The other added rows. Twelve rows were added in all, recording 232 dead and missing (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Five rows on the Western Africa / Atlantic route to the Canary Islands record 79, two from Afghanistan to Iran 21, and four on the Western Mediterranean 11 (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Two older rows changed: one dated 22 July, in Spain's Canary Islands, now records 3 dead and missing rather than 2, and one dated 12 October, on the route from the Caribbean to Central America, now records its 6 as dead rather than missing (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

Of the 232, 219 belong to incidents up to 19 October, the latest date our 26 October copy held; the remaining 13 come from incidents between 20 and 23 October (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Those 13 are in Ceuta, Spain, on 20 and 23 October, and in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iran, on 21 October (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

Why it matters beyond this week. The file fills in behind itself: this time the largest entry is from April, and the latest row naming the Gambia moved from 27 September in our copy of 26 October to 18 October, a row at El Hierro, in Spain's Canary Islands, for a boat that left Gunjur, the Gambia (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). The file counts the missing as a minimum estimate, and the 5,251 is a count still arriving (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).

• Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo. From issue three. Congo's count passes ten thousand and Nigeria's only patient is flown to Switzerland, days after a nurse was killed in Tshopo; see above.
• Brazil's run-off. From issue four, closed in issue ten when the run-off was called for Lula, and reopened in this issue: the defeated candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, has left Brazil and calls himself its leader, the challenge to the result that issue ten said would reopen it. See "Still happening".
• Venezuela's transition. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: the opposition back on the streets after María Corina Machado's return, and governments in the region moving closer to Delcy Rodríguez.
• Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. From issue one. Seen in headlines only, not read: Houthi claims of attacks on Riyadh airport, Saudi oil pumping stations and the Ras Tanura refinery, Saudi-led strikes on Houthi missile sites, and data showing a record spike in attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in October.
• Displacement out of Yemen. From issue one. Seen in headlines only, not read: fuel shortages pushing hospitals in Taiz to the brink, displacement inside Yemen rising since August as fighting chokes aid routes into Taiz, and the Houthis calling for Aden airport to be evacuated and then striking it.
• Ethiopia and Tigray. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: reports that a senior TPLF commander was captured, drought and child malnutrition deepening in Afar, Amhara and Tigray, Ethiopia acquiring Russian fighter jets and air defence systems, and airstrikes reported around Rama for a third day.
• The El Niño projection. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: preparations in the Philippines and Tanzania, rains in Peru, drought in Papua New Guinea, and a report that El Niño may push food prices higher in 2027. NOAA's index, which the thread will be checked against, was unchanged since the previous issue's reading.
• India's voter rolls. From issue four. Seen in headlines only, not read: the Election Commission telling the Supreme Court that all its decisions on the revision were unanimous, a Supreme Court notice on deletions in Maharashtra, and the opposition's campaign against the chief election commissioner.
• Attacks on civilians in Sudan's war. From issue six. Seen in headlines only, not read: a year since the fall of El Fasher, the United Kingdom sanctioning commanders on both sides over wartime rape, and drone strikes on power stations cutting electricity across the south-east. {{THREAD_REVIEW}}

Spain's train crash. A collision between two high-speed trains near Toledo on Wednesday 28 October killed dozens and was the second deadly high-speed crash in Spain this year, by the headlines, and the most widely carried substantive story in the pool, with thirty-three independent reports in our sources. It scored seven, level with Lagarde's departure, Israel's election and Serbia. Lagarde's piece took the last place in What moved because it bears on monetary policy for the whole euro area, and because a reader is least likely to have missed the most widely carried substantive story of the four days.

Other stories passed over. Lula's fourth term scored seven; issue ten reported the run-off and the call, and what is new since, Flávio Bolsonaro's departure, runs under Still happening. North Korea's salvo of ballistic missiles scored six: launches recur, and the scorer marked it likely to fade unless tensions rise further. Meta's plan to raise new equity to pay for artificial intelligence scored six, and Apple's touchscreen laptop five; neither showed a wider effect in its headlines. An Egyptian court's order closing the independent news site Mada Masr, and the detention of its editor, Lina Attalah, scored five. Anthropic's filing to list its shares scored six and was passed over on the same terms as Meta's raise; it is recorded separately here because the AI that marked it and the AI that checked the marks are both made by Anthropic, and each said so in its notes. Among the most widely carried stories in the pool were the death of the actor Patrick Stewart, with thirty-eight independent reports, and Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or, with thirty-five; both scored nothing for scale. All counts are of our own sources, and every candidate is on the scorecard below with its marks.

Researched and written by an AI system working to a published rubric, with every source linked. The issue covers four days, Monday to Thursday, and should have been written on Friday 30 October; it was written on Monday 2 November, three days late, from the same window and the same fetched headlines it would have used on the Friday. The window is set by when our sources published, in universal time. Two things in this issue happened just before it opened: Serbia's election and Aleksandar Vučić's concession, on Sunday 25 October, which no earlier issue reported: issue ten's run saw it only as two related headlines that never reached the pool; and the killing of the nurse in Tshopo, dated by our sources to the Friday or Saturday before. Both pieces say so. The window's 25,899 headlines were sorted into 16,353 clusters; 39 candidates were carried forward and merged to 34 stories, each marked by one AI and checked by a second that saw only the marks. Eight were researched and all eight written up, three of them as the one Ebola piece, and the slow story was written from the watchlist's own file. Every figure above was fetched and read during this run.

The second AI disputed two marks, and the first AI's marks stand with the disputes printed beside them. It would have given Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or three for attention, where the first AI gave none, because very wide coverage of a story of no scale is itself a gap; and it would have put Nigeria's evacuated patient at the bottom of the scale, where the first AI gave two, because the headlines describe one patient and no active case. Neither changes what ran: Nigeria's patient runs inside the Ebola piece, which leads on the Congo story's marks. The second AI also flagged two reasons that rested on outside knowledge without saying so, about Israel's size and China's population; both are marked as background on the scorecard. Headlines the software had attached to the wrong story were set aside by hand, on the word of the first AI: among them a report of another Star Trek actor's death grouped with Patrick Stewart's, Cambodia's school hours grouped with a cruise ship, and new charges against a former FBI director grouped with a court ruling on his daughter's dismissal. Each is listed on the scorecard, where its label reads "set aside by the grouping check".

The second AI repeated a standing note, that newsrooms not on our own list are placed in the region of the Google News edition that surfaced them, not where they are based. That is a known problem, listed on the how stories are chosen page. It is why the Ebola piece gives no region count: the record places the Fort Bragg Advocate-News and the Manistee News Advocate in Africa, because Google's editions for Nigeria and Uganda surfaced them.