What moved
Congo's Ebola outbreak passes 9,000 confirmed cases, officials say it has reached an eighth province, and Kenya confirms a second case
Congo's health ministry reported 9,066 confirmed Ebola cases and 4,381 deaths on Tuesday 13 October, taking confirmed cases past 9,000 (Al Jazeera; PBS, carrying AP). The WHO, publishing the same figures that day, put them across seven provinces and 65 health zones, a case fatality rate of 48.3 per cent (UN News). AP says the latest report added 88 new cases and said "community transmission remains a concern"; officials say confirmed cases are only a third of all cases, with many going undetected (PBS, carrying AP). Congo has 109.3 million people (World Bank, 2024).
A new province, Thursday 15 October. Two health officials told Reuters on Thursday that two cases had been confirmed in North Ubangi, a province bordering the Central African Republic, making it the eighth province affected; Congo's authorities had not officially announced them (Straits Times, carrying Reuters). The Central African Republic has 5.3 million people (World Bank, 2024).
Kenya, Wednesday 14 October. Kenya's health ministry said on Wednesday that a 39-year-old man, a close family member of the country's first patient, had Ebola (Al Jazeera). He developed fever, fatigue and joint pains on Tuesday 13 October while already quarantined and checked daily, and two laboratories returned positive results (The Standard). The ministry said the two cases were linked and that there was "no evidence of spread in the wider community" (BBC). Kenya's first patient, a man of 40 who had come from Congo by way of Uganda, died on 5 October (BBC). The ministry says 128 people were identified as his contacts; by 13 October 113 had been traced, 108 of them quarantined in Kenya, five were outside the country, and 15 were still being sought (The Standard). UN News, reporting on Thursday, put his contacts at more than 40 people and said six passengers were proving hard to locate; the WHO's representative in Kenya, Neema Rusibamayila Kimambo, praised the authorities for having "cast the net very wide" (UN News). The two counts differ, and our sources do not explain why. Kenya has 56.4 million people (World Bank, 2024).
Somalia, Tuesday 13 October. Somalia's health ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that Uganda had notified it that a Somali citizen had travelled with Kenya's first patient from Congo via Uganda; the man, who has not tested positive, was quarantined in Mogadishu on Sunday 11 October (Nation Africa). Earlier, on a Thursday the source does not date, the health minister, Ali Haji Adan, had said a medical team was deployed to the airport to monitor passengers (Nation Africa). Somalia has 19.0 million people (World Bank, 2024).
The responses differ in tone. Kenya's ministry called the second case "the response working as designed" and said Kenya remained open with no restrictions on travel, trade or public gatherings (The Standard; BBC); Kimambo said there was still no need for travel restrictions or border closures, while stressing screening (UN News). Our sources also count differently: Al Jazeera calls Kenya the fourth country with a case linked to the outbreak, and AP the second, after Uganda, to report a case imported from Congo (Al Jazeera; PBS, carrying AP). Separately, the WHO said on Wednesday that cholera is still spreading in Congo, with more than 125,000 suspected cases and 3,644 suspected deaths between January 2025 and the end of September 2026 (UN News).
Why it matters beyond this week. Reuters describes this as the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record (Straits Times, carrying Reuters), and AP says it is on track to top the 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak (PBS, carrying AP). The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine or treatment (Al Jazeera). The WHO's Chikwe Ihekweazu said on Tuesday that a vaccine efficacy trial is being prepared for Congo in the coming weeks (Al Jazeera); the BBC says trials are under way (BBC). The WHO has said that following up contacts has fallen below targets in recent weeks and is "a major operational pressure" (Euronews). And the Africa CDC's reconstruction of the first Kenyan patient's journey found several missed chances to detect his illness; health experts say it shows the limits of temperature checks and self-declarations (BBC).
India jails two leaders of the Cockroach Janta Party for five days after they enter a closed protest site
On Wednesday 14 October a magistrate's court in Delhi sent Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka, leaders of the youth-led Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), to five days' judicial custody, the day after they climbed barricades into Jantar Mantar, a central Delhi site that had just been removed from the list of permitted protest venues (accounts differ on the day; see below) (Scroll; The Hindu; Daily Maverick). A third leader, Ajinkya Shinde, was released on a personal bond (Scroll). Issue six reported their earlier detention; on Sunday 11 October a magistrate court had ordered Das, Ranka and the founder, Abhijeet Dipke, released on condition that they not breach the peace for one year (Scroll). The movement demands that Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar resign over the revision of the voter rolls (Al Jazeera). India has 1,450.9 million people (World Bank, 2024). Sixteen newsrooms in our sources, based in seven regions, carried the story.
Delhi, Tuesday 13 October. Videos posted by CJP leaders showed members climbing barricades into the empty site and waving the national flag before police detained them (BBC; Dawn). Accounts of the group's size differ: about a dozen people in Daily Maverick's report, about 20 volunteers in Al Jazeera's, though the video it describes shows about a dozen, and 14 CJP members according to police as reported by The Hindu (Daily Maverick; Al Jazeera; The Hindu). A senior police officer told The Hindu they got in through eateries and food stalls near the site (The Hindu). The CJP's head of legal affairs, Ratna Singh, alleged the detainees were not allowed to meet their lawyer and had their phones confiscated (Scroll).
Why they were jailed depends on who is explaining. Their lawyer, Abhisht Hela, said they were jailed for breaking an undertaking given at their release the week before; Delhi Police cited "repeated violations" and "serious apprehensions" that they would break the law again and instigate others (Daily Maverick). Police registered two cases against the 14, covering disobedience of an official order, trespass, criminal conspiracy and obstructing or hurting police on duty, The Hindu reports (The Hindu). After five days the two could be held longer, granted bail or released (Dawn, carrying AFP).
The closed site. Sources differ on who closed Jantar Mantar: The Hindu and Amnesty International say Delhi Police on 12 October; the BBC says the federal home ministry announced it; Scroll says it was denotified on Sunday on a home-ministry committee's recommendation, with the police order reported on Monday (The Hindu; Amnesty; BBC; Scroll). Of the three alternative grounds police named, Ramlila Ground has only 29, 30 and 31 December free, at ₹50,000 a day plus a refundable deposit, officials told The Hindu (Scroll; The Hindu).
The opposition and the courts. On Monday opposition leaders and student activists marched from Connaught Place to the Supreme Court (BBC; SCMP), and the Congress-led opposition petitioned the court to halt the revision and examine whether Kumar acted without his fellow commissioners' approval (SCMP). Police filed two cases over the march, saying it had no permission (The Hindu, carrying PTI). On Tuesday the government told the Supreme Court its reply on alleged illegal detentions was "ready" but needed more fine-tuning, and the court gave it until Thursday 15 October; the hearing on the protest pleas was also deferred to Thursday because a judge was unwell (The Hindu). Our sources do not report its outcome. Lawyers told Scroll that the detention of people far from Jantar Mantar on Saturday 10 October was illegal (Scroll).
Reactions. Rahul Gandhi, the parliamentary opposition leader, said waving the flag in a peaceful protest "is not a crime" (Dawn, carrying AFP). Human Rights Watch urged the government to "stop throwing young protesters in jail"; Al Jazeera dates the statement Tuesday, AFP Wednesday (Al Jazeera; Dawn, carrying AFP). Amnesty International India called for the leaders' immediate release (Amnesty). Home Minister Amit Shah called the protests localised (Dawn, carrying AFP). Prime Minister Narendra Modi called India the "mother of democracy" on Tuesday without referring directly to the protests (Dawn). The Election Commission denies favouring any party and says wrongly deleted voters can re-enrol (Al Jazeera).
Why it matters beyond this week. Amnesty says the arrests, coming after the site's removal, raise "serious concerns about shrinking space for peaceful protest" (Amnesty). The SCMP reports the issue is drawing support from farmers' groups, whose coalition, Samyukt Kisan Morcha, has announced nationwide demonstrations for 23 October (SCMP).
Ethiopian forces move north through Tigray to the Eritrean border
Issue four reported federal forces taking Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, on Saturday 3 October. In this window the government's forces and an allied militia were reported taking the town of Adwa, reaching Zalambessa on the border with Eritrea, and entering the city of Aksum, while Eritrea denied that its troops had entered Ethiopia (Al Jazeera; The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Ethiopia has 132.1 million people and Eritrea 3.5 million (World Bank, Ethiopia, 2024; World Bank, Eritrea, 2024). The story was thinly carried: four independent reports in our sources.
Adwa, reported Monday 12 October. Residents told AFP that federal forces and an allied militia entered Adwa, roughly 40 kilometres from the Eritrean border, without a fight on Sunday 11 October, a day after fighters of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) left (The Hindu, carrying AFP; Al Jazeera). One resident said shops were closed and that government buildings, including Adwa Hospital, had been looted overnight; another said government forces were in the town but had not reached its centre, and that people were "very afraid of theft" (Al Jazeera). France 24 reported that residents fear further violence (France 24). Amanuel Assefa, a TPLF vice president, declined to comment (Al Jazeera).
Zalambessa, Tuesday 13 October. Six sources told Reuters the army had reached Zalambessa, a town of around 15,000 on the Ethiopian side of the border; they included a diplomat, a specialist on the conflict and people in contact with residents; a spokesperson for a pro-government militia did not confirm it (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). ACLED documented Ethiopian tanks and heavy weapons moving towards the border that day (Al Jazeera). Accounts of how far they had got differ: on Wednesday a resident of Zalambessa told AFP the Ethiopian army was about five kilometres south of the town, with the Eritrean army on its northern outskirts (Modern Ghana, carrying AFP). On Thursday a resident told AFP that Ethiopian troops were on one side and Eritrean troops on the other; AFP reported there was no fighting now, but that the town had been without power or water for a week (Al Jazeera).
Whether Eritrean troops are in Ethiopia is disputed. Witnesses and a conflict monitor said Eritrean troops had crossed into Zalambessa the week before in support of the rebels, though Reuters said it was unclear whether they were still there on Tuesday; Ethiopia wrote to Security Council members that they had advanced up to 60 kilometres inside Ethiopia (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). A security source from outside Ethiopia told AFP the week before that between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers were in Tigray (The Hindu, carrying AFP). Eritrea denies any incursion, calls Ethiopia's accusations a "declaration of war", and has asked the Security Council to act against Ethiopia (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Ethiopia also accuses Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebel alliance; both deny it (Al Jazeera).
Aksum and the militia's claim, reported Thursday 15 October. On Wednesday AFP reported that pro-government forces had moved into Shire and Aksum "in recent days" (Modern Ghana, carrying AFP). On Thursday Ethiopian forces and allied fighters said they had entered Aksum, and ACLED documented them doing so, with rival Tigrayan fighters remaining in the surrounding mountains (Al Jazeera). The pro-government Tigray Peace Force said Eritrean troops had retreated towards the border with significant casualties. Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, called the claims false, and Al Jazeera said the extent of the reported losses could not be independently verified. ACLED did report Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border through Zalambessa (Al Jazeera).
Why it matters beyond this week. Eritrea fought on Ethiopia's side in the war of 2020 to 2022, which Reuters says killed hundreds of thousands; the two are now on opposing sides, and Reuters reports fears that violence could spread across a region already at war elsewhere (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Eritrea cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia this month (Al Jazeera). On Wednesday 14 October Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, urged de-escalation when he spoke by phone with Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's prime minister, after reports of an alleged confrontation between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces; according to a State Department statement, Rubio said the region could not tolerate more conflict (Al Jazeera).
Brazil's run-off: two polls put the gap within the margin of error, and Lula's party takes a complaint about Meta to the OAS
Two polls published in the window found Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator, two points ahead of the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a gap within each poll's margin of error, as Folha de S.Paulo and Bloomberg report (Folha de S.Paulo; The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg). The run-off is on 25 October (France 24). Lula's campaign said on Wednesday 14 October that his party would complain to the Organisation of American States about Meta, which denies its accusations (France 24). Brazil has 212.0 million people (World Bank, 2024).
Quaest. Quaest has Bolsonaro on 46% of voting intentions and Lula on 44%, with 9% blank or null and 1% undecided; in valid votes, which leave out blank and null ballots, 51% to 49% (Folha de S.Paulo). It interviewed people aged 16 or over from Saturday 10 to Tuesday 13 October for TV Globo and the newspaper O Globo; its margin of error is two points either way at 95% confidence (Folha de S.Paulo). It was released on Wednesday 14 October (Folha de S.Paulo; O Liberal; SBT News). Folha calls the result a technical tie; Al Jazeera calls it a slight lead within the margin, says many experts think the race too close to call, and still calls Bolsonaro the favourite (Folha de S.Paulo; Al Jazeera).
Datafolha. Datafolha, commissioned by Folha, interviewed 2,520 voters on Tuesday 13 and Wednesday 14 October, with a margin of error of two points either way at 95% confidence (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg; Folha de S.Paulo). One Folha report gives the dates as Tuesday to Thursday (Folha de S.Paulo); Gazeta Mercantil explains that the poll's registration with the electoral court covered 13 to 15 October, but the institute's final release gave the interviews as 13 and 14 October (Gazeta Mercantil). In valid votes it has Bolsonaro on 51% and Lula on 49%, against 52% to 48% a week earlier; in all votes, counting blank, null and undecided answers, 47% to 45%, against 49% to 45% (Folha de S.Paulo). Folha calls this a technical tie, and Bloomberg says both the gap and the shifts since the previous poll are within the margin of error (Folha de S.Paulo; The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg). The Senate's approval of Lula's shorter working week came on Wednesday 14 October, when Datafolha's second and last day of interviews had already ended, Folha notes (Folha de S.Paulo).
Meta. On Wednesday the campaign said Lula's party would take a complaint of election "interference" to the OAS; the party's communications secretary, Eden Valadares, said Lula had ordered the move (France 24). The campaign says Lula's profile was blocked from promoting Instagram posts and that the profiles of Lula and other left-wing leaders "suddenly disappeared" from Instagram's search, which France 24 places before the first round on 4 October and The Hindu after it (France 24; The Hindu). Meta's Brazil office called the accusations "simply false" and "not supported by the facts" (France 24).
The campaign. On Wednesday the Senate gave final approval to a constitutional amendment, Lula's flagship promise, cutting the maximum working week from 44 to 40 hours with no cut in pay (Al Jazeera; The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg). On Thursday Lula said in a video that he would send Congress an amendment guaranteeing free weekend public transport nationwide, paid for from congressional budget earmarks, without saying when (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). Economists warn, Reuters reports, that such measures, with no offsetting cuts announced, could worry investors about public finances (The Straits Times, carrying Reuters). On Sunday 11 October, the day before the window opened, Lula had led a mass rally for more days off for workers (The Hindu).
Why it matters beyond this week. Folha calls this the closest presidential election so far since Brazil's return to democracy in 1989, and notes that since then no candidate who came second in the first round has won the run-off (Folha de S.Paulo). This time it was Lula who came second: Bolsonaro finished ahead of him in the first round on 4 October (The Straits Times, carrying Bloomberg).
EU leaders meet over energy prices, China and the budget
The leaders of the European Union's 27 member states opened a two-day summit in Brussels on Thursday 15 October, with energy prices, the trade deficit with China and the bloc's budget for 2028 to 2034 on the first day's agenda, and Ukraine on the second (DW; Euronews). Our window closed at the end of Thursday, so this covers what was on the table and what was reported that day, not what the summit finally agreed. The European Union has 450.2 million people (World Bank, 2024). The record is thin: three newsrooms in our sources, based in two regions.
Energy. On Wednesday 14 October Euronews reported oil above $100 a barrel despite a coordinated G7 release, and gas at its highest since the winter of 2022, prices it attributed to hostilities in the Middle East (Euronews). Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Greece's Kyriakos Mitsotakis asked Brussels to relax the bloc's fiscal rules so that governments could fund "temporary and targeted measures"; other countries worry that this would encourage fossil-fuel use (Euronews).
China. DW puts the EU's trade deficit with China at €360 billion last year, and says it has climbed to €1 billion a day (DW). Issue six reported the EU saying China had agreed to curb its hybrid-car exports; Euronews now reports that the deal sets country-specific quotas of 350,000 hybrid cars a year over four years, and puts the Chinese hybrid-car imports the deal covers at €15 billion, though another entry on the same page gives that figure for all Chinese car exports to the EU (Euronews). A draft statement seen by the South China Morning Post, which it said could change, called on the Commission to add new instruments to the bloc's trade toolbox "urgently"; DW reported the leaders making that call (SCMP; DW). France and Germany have proposed a "kill switch" that would cut China's access to the EU market if the deficit stayed unsustainable (Euronews). Over lunch on Thursday with the Commission's president, Ursula von der Leyen, leaders pressed for import quotas to shield chemicals and industrial machinery, Euronews reported, and an EU diplomat confirmed they were pushing the Commission to protect both sectors; a senior EU official said the Commission would present two new instruments by the end of the year (Euronews). Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said anyone seeking a trade conflict "with us" would find "we are now prepared to fight back", according to Bloomberg as reported by the SCMP (SCMP).
The budget. Ireland, which holds the rotating presidency, has proposed cutting €141 billion from the original draft (Euronews). Merz said the budget must be reduced significantly compared with the Commission's proposals, and Sweden's prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, called the proposals "simply not acceptable" (DW). Euronews reported that the talks hit a new impasse on Thursday (Euronews).
Ukraine. Draft conclusions were changed to add that the European Council "regrets" the temporary lifting of US sanctions on Russian diesel (Euronews). Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, arrived on Thursday evening for meetings with individual leaders before the Ukraine session on Friday, which fell after our window (Euronews).
Why it matters beyond this week. The budget needs unanimous approval, and DW reports that elections in several member states next year could make a deal harder (DW). The European Council's president, António Costa, wants agreement by the end of the year so that the legislative work can be finished before January 2028 (Euronews). On trade, an EU diplomat told Euronews the hybrid deal was "not the end of the story"; Euronews reports further rounds of talks with China scheduled for January and March (Euronews).
Still happening
Riyadh's airport stays shut, an Aramco building is hit, and Saudi Arabia's public warnings return
After the strikes on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh reported in the previous issue, on Monday 12 October Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority extended the suspension of operations there to check the airport was safe; Flightradar24 said the closure ran until 21:00 GMT on 17 October (Anadolu). Saudi Arabia has 35.3 million people (World Bank, 2024).
Late on Tuesday 13 October an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran was hit, causing what the energy ministry called a "limited fire" with no casualties (The Japan Times; The Hindu). A company source told The Japan Times that the top three floors of an office tower were damaged; sources cited by Reuters described extensive damage (The Japan Times; BBC). On Wednesday the Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, said the group had targeted Aramco in Dhahran, an Aramco refinery and the airport in Riyadh, and would keep attacking airports and oil facilities (BBC; Dawn). Saudi civil defence said debris from two intercepted cruise missiles wounded four people in Riyadh (The Hindu).
The Saudi-led coalition said on Wednesday that it had intercepted a ballistic missile fired towards Riyadh (Al Jazeera), and a cruise missile in the Medina region on Thursday 15 October, without saying who fired it (Anadolu). Saree called the Medina claim "a shameless and brazen lie" and said the Houthis had carried out no operation that day (France 24).
The Japan Times reports that Saudi Arabia had stopped public attack alerts before the airport strikes, and issued its first since 29 September on Monday; two officials with direct knowledge said that when an allied Western government asked why, Saudi authorities replied that the alerts were too disruptive; the government did not respond (The Japan Times).
On Tuesday the cabinet, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said the Houthis would "bear the consequences" (BBC); on Monday the energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said "our response must be equally serious" (Punch, carrying AFP).
The slow story
One boat off Djibouti, and the route that has carried more dead since 2022
Our watchlist reads the International Organization for Migration's count of people recorded dead or missing on migration routes this year. It stood at 4,658 with data to 5 October and now stands at 4,887 with data to 11 October, a rise of 229 (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Of that rise, 223 is one incident: a boat that capsized near Guehere, north of Obock in Djibouti, on the crossing to Yemen (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). IOM announced the toll on Sunday 11 October, inside the last issue's window, and the last issue did not report it (France 24, carrying AFP). Djibouti has 1.2 million people (World Bank, 2024).
The boat was carrying 305 people from Djibouti towards Yemen, according to IOM (UN News). IOM said it sank on the night of 8 to 9 October (France 24, carrying AFP); Alexandre Coissac, IOM's chief of mission in Djibouti, told the Associated Press that it went down soon after boarding, close to the shore, "mainly because it was overcrowded" (PBS, carrying AP). IOM's file dates the incident 11 October (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file); its methodology says that field is an estimated date of death or, where that is unknown, the date bodies were found, and, where survivors or witnesses give it, the date they report (IOM, methodology).
The toll rose as bodies were recovered: IOM first gave 109 dead and 116 missing, then, in a later statement, 139 dead and 84 missing (France 24, carrying AFP); the BBC reports that IOM revised the figure on Sunday after 30 more bodies were found (BBC). About 82 people survived (UN News), all of them Ethiopian nationals, IOM said (France 24, carrying AFP). Coissac told the AP that the count of dead covers only those buried by Djibouti's authorities; others, buried by the migrants themselves, will not be counted until the bodies are verified (PBS, carrying AP). The file records the later figures, 139 dead and at least 84 missing, citing IOM Djibouti and the Associated Press. Its breakdown, 42 female, 52 male and 15 children, is the one IOM gave for the first 109 bodies recovered (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file; Euronews).
IOM counted it among the deadliest shipwrecks on record on the Eastern Route, the crossing from the Horn of Africa to the Arabian Peninsula (UN News).
| Year | Full year | 1 January to 11 October |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 265 | 203 |
| 2015 | 122 | 95 |
| 2016 | 162 | 109 |
| 2017 | 144 | 144 |
| 2018 | 210 | 202 |
| 2019 | 205 | 148 |
| 2020 | 57 | 37 |
| 2021 | 138 | 134 |
| 2022 | 882 | 820 |
| 2023 | 701 | 578 |
| 2024 | 558 | 549 |
| 2025 | 922 | 898 |
| 2026 | year not complete | 424 |
People recorded dead or missing on the route the file names "Eastern Route to/from EHOA". Source: sums of the IOM Missing Migrants Project incident file, retrieved on 16 October 2026, with incidents to 11 October 2026.
From 2014 to 2021 the route's full-year totals ran between 57 and 265. From 2022 they have run between 558 and 922 (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). The file does not say why, and our sources do not either. The 922 for 2025 is consistent with IOM's statement, reported by AFP, that more than 900 died or went missing on the sea route to Yemen last year, when the number attempting the journey rose by 18 percent (France 24, carrying AFP).
This year the route's total to 11 October is 424, lower than the same dates of any year since 2022. Before the Obock capsizing it was 201; that one incident is 53% of the route's recorded total for 2026 (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file). Across all routes it is the third largest incident the file records this year, after two boat capsizings in Myanmar, on 8 July and 29 June (IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident file).
Confidence. Issue three set out the limits of this count, and they still apply. IOM describes its figures as "a minimum estimate of the number of migrant deaths", and says that in Africa its data come from media and NGOs (IOM, methodology). In this shipwreck the count of dead already leaves out bodies the migrants buried themselves, by IOM's own account (PBS, carrying AP). With one incident making up most of this year's recorded total, the route is better read in years than weeks, and in years the file shows a step up in 2022 that has held through 2025.
Pattern watch
- Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo. From issue three. Confirmed cases past 9,000, a new province, and a second case in Kenya; see above.
- India's voter rolls. From issue four. The movement's leaders jailed for five days after entering a barricaded protest site; see above.
- Ethiopia and Tigray. From issue two. Federal forces in Adwa and at the Eritrean border; see above.
- Brazil's presidential run-off. From issue four. The polls in the run-up to the vote; see above.
- Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. From issue one. Seen in headlines only, not read: reports of ships struck and sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, and a UN warning of a food crisis tied to a blocked fertiliser plan there. The attacks on Saudi Arabia are under "Still happening".
- Attacks on civilians in Sudan's war. From the previous issue. Seen in headlines only, not read: further reports on the air strikes on gold miners near the border with Egypt, and a famine monitor's warning that conflict and drought are raising the risk of famine.
- Displacement out of Yemen. From issue one. Nothing read for this issue. The boat in the slow story was crossing the other way, towards Yemen.
- The El Niño projection. From issue two. NOAA's index was unchanged since the previous issue, so the watchlist did not flag it. Seen in headlines only, not read: local governments and farmers preparing for its effects, and a drought blamed on it cutting a harvest.
- South Sudan's first election. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: reports of new obstacles on the road to the vote.
- Venezuela's transition. From issue two. Seen in headlines only, not read: a third round of talks between the government and the opposition, and the United States lifting sanctions on the country's top legislator.
- Iraq after the coalition. From issue three. Seen in headlines only, not read: parliament approving the remaining cabinet posts, and a devaluation of the dinar.
- Deaths in custody in Nigeria. From issue two. Nothing read for this issue. One headline, not read, reports Amnesty seeking the prosecution of officers over a death in custody in Imo state.
- Arctic militarisation. From issue one. Nothing read for this issue, and nothing in the headlines about military moves.
- The trade truce between the United States and China. From issue three. Nothing read for this issue.
- The Himalayan glacier risk. From issue two. Nothing read for this issue.
- Russia's political system after the war. From issue one. Nothing read for this issue.
What this issue does not contain, and why
The most widely carried story in the pool was Pope Leo XIV's diagnosis with lung cancer and his surgery: forty-seven newsrooms in our sources reported it, more than any other story this window. It was passed over on its marks: one man's illness and a successful operation. The second AI that checked the marks would have marked its scale lower and its coverage gap higher. A plan to livestream the execution of the Fort Hood gunman, carried by twenty-eight newsrooms, was passed over on its marks: one execution, very widely carried. Both counts are of our own sources, and every candidate is on the scorecard below with its marks.
How this issue was made
Researched and written by an AI system working to a published rubric, with every source linked. The issue covers four days, Monday to Thursday, and was written on the Friday. The window is set by when our sources published, in universal time; the EU summit and the Brazilian campaign were still going on when it closed. The window's 25,788 headlines were sorted into 16,527 clusters; 37 candidates were carried forward and merged to 31 stories, each marked by one AI and checked by a second that saw only the marks. Six were researched and written up, and the slow story was written from IOM's own incident file, read during this run. Every figure above was fetched and read during this run.
Headlines the software had attached to the wrong story were set aside by hand, on the word of the first AI, which named them but could not set them aside itself: among them an item on the pope addressing museum directors, grouped with his illness, and one on India's trade deficit with China, grouped with the EU summit. Each is listed on the scorecard, where its label reads "set aside by the grouping check"; that label is the software's, and here it means these hand set-asides. The first AI's note that it could not set headlines aside was written before this was done and is printed as written.
The second AI also noted that newsrooms not on our own list are placed in the region of the Google News edition that surfaced them, not where they are based, so the region counts for stories carried mostly by such newsrooms can be too high. That is a known problem, listed on the how stories are chosen page; it lifts some product and entertainment stories and did not decide any story that ran.